S&P 500: Approaching the Grand Supercycle Peak – A Dual Scenario Analysis for 2024-2025

Long-Term Analysis

In our long-term analysis of the S&P 500, we believe it is nearing the completion of a Grand Supercycle Wave 3. Based on our Fibonacci timeline, we project that the significant top will occur between May and August 2025, after which we anticipate a major collapse, identified as Wave 4 of the Grand Supercycle, targeting approximately $600.

Medium-Term Analysis

First Scenario

In our first scenario, we suggest that the S&P 500 is currently forming an ending contracting diagonal, having completed Wave 1 and Wave 2, and is now in the process of finalising Wave 3. This sequence is expected to peak around the election week, specifically from November 6 to 9, 2024, which aligns with our target for Wave 3 at around $6,000 to 6,200, followed by a decline to $4,600.

Second Scenario

Alternatively, in our second scenario, we propose that Wave 4 was completed at the late 2022 bottom, and we are now witnessing a five-wave ascent that will conclude around the election week. Should this hold true, we would then expect a steep decline post-election to fulfil the Grand Supercycle Wave 4, again targeting $600. Thus, we find ourselves at a critical juncture, with the potential for significant market movements in the coming months.

Short-Term Analysis

On the daily chart, we expect the price to drop to around the $5,600 area. Following this, the market should push up to the $6,000–$6,200 range before experiencing a strong and significant downturn.

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